Two and two dating

28-Nov-2017 14:12 by 10 Comments

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The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

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For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.

Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.

The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.

There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.

The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.

Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.

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